Fenn, P.

Abstract: AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model for type 2 diabetes that can be used to estimate the likely occurrence of major diabetes-related complications over a lifetime, in order to calculate health economic outcomes such as quality-adjusted life expectancy. METHODS: Equations for forecasting the occurrence of seven diabetes-related complications and death were estimated using data on 3642 patients from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). After examining the internal validity, the UKPDS Outcomes Model was used to simulate the mean difference in expected quality-adjusted life years between the UKPDS regimens of intensive and conventional blood glucose control. RESULTS: The models forecasts fell within the 95% confidence interval for the occurrence of observed events during the UKPDS follow-up period. When the model was used to simulate event history over patients lifetimes, those treated with a regimen of conventional glucose control could expect 16.35 undiscounted quality-adjusted life years, and those receiving treatment with intensive glucose control could expect 16.62 quality-adjusted life years, a difference of 0.27 (95% CI: -0.48 to 1.03). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: The UKPDS Outcomes Model is able to simulate event histories that closely match observed outcomes in the UKPDS and that can be extrapolated over patients lifetimes. Its validity in estimating outcomes in other groups of patients, however, remains to be evaluated. The model allows simulation of a range of long-term outcomes, which should assist in informing future economic evaluations of interventions in type 2 diabetes.

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Abstract: OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost effectiveness of conventional versus intensive blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN: Incremental cost effectiveness analysis alongside randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 23 UK hospital clinic based study centres. PARTICIPANTS: 3867 patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (mean age 53 years). INTERVENTIONS: Conventional (primarily diet) glucose control policy versus intensive control policy with a sulphonylurea or insulin. Main outcome measures: Incremental cost per event-free year gained within the trial period. RESULTS: Intensive glucose control increased trial treatment costs by pound 695 (95\% confidence interval pound 555 to pound 836) per patient but reduced the cost of complications by pound 957 (pound 233 to pound 1681) compared with conventional management. If standard practice visit patterns were assumed rather than trial conditions, the incremental cost of intensive management was pound 478 (-pound 275 to pound 1232) per patient. The within trial event-free time gained in the intensive group was 0.60 (0.12 to 1.10) years and the lifetime gain 1.14 (0.69 to 1.61) years. The incremental cost per event-free year gained was pound 1166 (costs and effects discounted at 6\% a year) and pound 563 (costs discounted at 6\% a year and effects not discounted). CONCLUSIONS: Intensive blood glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes significantly increased treatment costs but substantially reduced the cost of complications and increased the time free of complications.

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