| |  | Grais, R. F. | Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. read moreAbstract: The objective of this study is to estimate the effective reproductive ratio for the 2003-2004 measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger. Using the results of a retrospective and prospective study of reported cases within Niamey during the 2003-2004 epidemic, we estimate the basic reproductive ratio, effective reproductive ratio (RE) and minimal vaccination coverage necessary to avert future epidemics using a recent method allowing for estimation based on the epidemic case series. We provide these estimates for geographic areas within Niamey, thereby identifying neighbourhoods at high risk. The estimated citywide RE was 2.8, considerably lower than previous estimates, which may help explain the long duration of the epidemic. Transmission intensity varied during the course of the epidemic and within different neighbourhoods (RE range: 1.4-4.7). Our results indicate that vaccination coverage in currently susceptible children should be increased by at least 67% (vaccine efficacy 90%) to produce a citywide vaccine coverage of 90%. This research highlights the importance of local differences in vaccination coverage on the potential impact of epidemic control measures. The spatial-temporal spread of the epidemic from district to district in Niamey over 30 weeks suggests that targeted interventions within the city could have an impact.  This article is not yet tagged | 2006 |
| | | Savill, N. J. | Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. read moreAbstract: BACKGROUND: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. RESULTS: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. CONCLUSION: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic. This article is not yet tagged | 2006 |
| | | Hallett, T. B. | Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather read moreAbstract: Sorry no abstract available for this article This article is not yet tagged | 2004 |
| | | Grenfell, B. T. | Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics read moreAbstract: Sorry no abstract available for this article This article is not yet tagged | 2001 |
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