Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic.

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Authors: Savill, N. J.; Shaw, D. J.; Deardon, R.; Tildesley, M. J.; Keeling, M. J.; Woolhouse, M. E.; Brooks, S. P.; Grenfell, B. T.;
Publishing Info: BMC Vet Res , 2(--), --.
Year: 2006

Everyone's Keywords: disease; health; epidemic; footandmouth; uk;

Abstract: BACKGROUND: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. RESULTS: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. CONCLUSION: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

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